Sonoma County faces formidable wildfire season in wake of warm, dry winter

The trimmed green lawns in Mike MacDonald’s east Santa Rosa neighborhood are more than ornaments of suburban living. They could help save the homes in one of the city’s most fire-prone areas in a season fraught with risk.

“Everything’s pretty manicured in our area right now,” MacDonald said, recalling that his springtime chores included cutting down head-high weeds in the half-acre of open space behind his home in Skyhawk - exactly the precaution fire officials are urging the public to adopt.

Residents throughout Sonoma County have reason for concern in the wake of a warm, dry winter that turned the landscape from green to brown, and more flammable a month early, with warnings that hot, windy days to come will amplify the danger of major wildfires.

“Fire season is underway,” said Ben Nicholls, a Cal Fire division chief in Santa Rosa. “We’re definitely ready to burn.”

Two grass fires that scorched about 150 acres near Petaluma last week served notice of the season’s arrival, along with a wind-whipped fire that blackened more than 1,800 acres and destroyed three homes north of Vacaville.

Cal Fire reported more than 2,300 fires covering 6,600 acres statewide this year, ranging from San Diego to Shasta County, and there were six active fires on Friday, including a grass fire east of Sacramento that swelled to 2,000 acres in gusting winds, prompting road closures and evacuations.

Wildfires actually took just two months off between the six blazes that blackened more than 6,000 acres statewide in November and four fires covering 445 acres in February.

The official fire season in Northern California historically spanned about four months but is now running for eight to nine months, Nicholls said.

The state firefighting agency will move to full staffing in Sonoma County on June 22, with 14 engines, two bulldozers and 150 firefighters at nine stations and two air tankers at the county airport.

“We think it’s going to be a long, busy fire season,” said Scott Westrope, Santa Rosa’s deputy fire chief. “Everybody’s ramped up to go.”

The city’s concern focuses on high-risk areas where homes are close to or mixed among woodlands - known as the wildland-urban interface - which covers 30% of Santa Rosa.

“The more available the fuels are the bigger the problem we have,” Westrope said.

Skyhawk, Fountaingrove, the east side of Rincon Valley, Annadel Heights and the south side of Oakmont are included in the area.

Looking east from his home at the edge of Skyhawk, MacDonald sees a forested ridge in the Mayacamas Mountains, ordinarily a pleasing sight. “I never would have considered it a threat before, but 2017 changed everything,” he said.

Skyhawk went untouched by the Tubbs and Nuns fires of 2017, which together with some smaller blazes destroyed about 5,300 Sonoma County homes. The massive Kincade fire last fall destroyed 174 homes.

MacDonald knows the risk this year is real. “If trees are dry, they’re going to go up,” he said. “We have a family evacuation plan in place.”

A four-month seasonal outlook issued last week by Predictive Services, a branch of the National Weather Service, said a swath of Northern and Central California - including all of Sonoma County except for the coast and Petaluma plain - will have an above-normal potential for fires of 75 acres or more in mid- to late June.

“Dead fuels are expected to dry to critical levels in June,” the report said, noting that weather during the latter part of June will be “hot and dry with occasional offshore winds.”

A “robust crop” of fine fuel, which includes grass, leaves and needles, dried out early and will burn fast when ignited, the report said.

Sonoma County’s wildfire potential will drop to normal in July and August, but in September the Bay Area and all of Northern California will again have an above-normal potential.

“It definitely gives pause for what the fire season is bringing,” Nicholls said. “Folks need to be very cautious when they are out in wildland areas,” he said, adding that 99% of fires in Sonoma, Napa and Lake counties are caused by humans.

Westrope said the most foreboding weather element is the north to northeast wind that blows from Nevada and over the Sacramento Valley before coming in hot across Sonoma County to the ocean.

Fortunately, the county is still getting onshore winds that bring some fog and dew in from the ocean and help offset the impact of the dry winds, he said.

Sonoma County, along with much of the Bay Area and nearly all of the North Coast, is in severe drought, according to the Drought Monitor released Thursday. Nearly half of the state is in moderate to extreme drought, with all of Southern California drought-free.

The National Weather Service forecasts a sunny weekend with temperates in the 70s and 80s and west to southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. Nicholls said it was fortunate that no offshore winds were anticipated.

No matter the weather or the outlook, firefighters take each season in stride, Westrope said.

“We’re always concerned,” he said. “It’s our job to worry about the worst-case scenario.”

State Sen. Mike McGuire, D-Healdsburg, said California’s financial commitment to firefighting hasn’t waned in the face of a $54 billion budget deficit attributed to the coronavirus pandemic.

The current budget includes funding for an additional 131 ?permanent Cal Fire firefighters and 154 seasonal firefighters, he said.

The budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1 tabs $85.5 million for 172 permanent and 350 ?seasonal firefighters.

“We live in an era of wildland megafires,” McGuire said.

You can reach Staff Writer Guy Kovner at 707-521-5457 or guy.kovner@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @guykovner.