Worries of flooding return to Sonoma County as forecast storm set to bring heavy rain, high winds

Two-and-half weeks into a series of deadly storms that have spread disaster around California, Sonoma County faces yet more heavy wind and rain Saturday, renewing the risk of downed trees and power lines, mudslides and potential flooding on the Russian River and tributary streams.

A cold front coming into the region before dawn is likely to dump an extra 1 to 3 inches of new rain on top of 1 to 2 inches that fell on a soggy, saturated landscape around the area Friday.

The National Weather Service issued a flood watch, starting Saturday through Monday, and a wind advisory, warning of gusts up to 50 mph during the worst of the rain, from before sunup Saturday to about noon, meteorologists said.

The weather service also has a high surf warning in place for the Bay Area, especially west-facing beaches, through 10 a.m. Saturday due to breaking waves as high as 25 feet.

The incoming rain could be enough finally to send the Russian River above flood stage in the lower river corridor, according to projections from the California Nevada River Forecast Center.

By late Friday, the center, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicted the river would reach 33.4 feet around 9 a.m. Sunday morning, allowing flooding to spread into the lowest lying resorts and roadways in Guerneville and neighboring communities. Flood stage is 32 feet.

Although an emergency shelter at the Sonoma County Fairgrounds closed at noon Friday, county officials will keep a close eye on river and weather forecasts, said Matt Brown, a county spokesperson. There are no evacuation warnings for the Russian River region as of now.

“We continue to monitor the predictions and it is a changing situation, so as new rainfall totals come in, that could change,” he said.

With soils saturated and creeks swollen from previous storms, Brown and weather experts are advising people to stay alert and use caution on the roads.

During a state briefing Friday, Cindy Messer, lead deputy director for the California Department of Water Resources, called out the Russian River in Guerneville and Hopland, as well as the Navarro River in Mendocino County, as among the seven locations expected to exceed flood stage this weekend.

Flooding in the area has repeatedly been forecast over the past two weeks and so far failed to materialize, though it came close at 31.8 feet early Tuesday morning.

For river residents, many of whom were under a weeklong evacuation warning lifted Tuesday, the flood threat, combined with power failures, road closures and substantially disrupted lives grew old days ago.

“There’s a sense of exhaustion,” said Guerneville resident Jeniffer Wertz, who has spent most of her free time checking in on vulnerable individuals and distributing gift cards to those in need on behalf of the nonprofit Russian River Alliance.

“The worst so far has been the power outage and the downed trees,” Wertz said. “We’ve been pretty lucky, but we’ve been riding this roller coast of predictions.”

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Jeff Bridges, general manager at the R3 Resort in central Guerneville, said his staff is coping with the chaos. They boxed up all the files and computers last week and moved all they could to the upstairs rooms.

Even though he feels confident the river won’t reach flood stage, he’s not prepared to reoccupy lower resort floors yet and said most other resort owners are taking the same approach, until the weather clears.

That isn’t expected to happen until the middle of next week.

“Everyone’s still in kind of cautious wait and see,” he said. “Let’s see what the weekend brings.”

Emergency officials have offered frequent reminders that heavy runoff continues to pose hazards of its own, with the landscape saturated and more prone to slides.

Sonoma County Emergency Management Director Chris Godley said this week that soil moisture sensors remained at the maximum and that mudslides were “a significant concern.”

“This reminds me of the period in 1998 when we saw significant slides in many parts of the county,” Godley said.

Among them was a massive slide in Rio Nido that destroyed 24 homes and caused about $10 million in property damage.

Looking ahead, more rain is expected Sunday, as a warmer system comes through bringing about 1.5 inches of rain to the coastal hills by Monday evening, meteorologist Eleanor Dhuyvetter said.

State and federal emergency officials during a Friday briefing pleaded with weary Californians to combat complacency even if they’ve so far been untouched by the mounting devastation.

They repeatedly noted how dynamic the situation remained, saying residents needed to stay attuned to their surroundings and heed warnings and instructions from emergency officials.

“These storms are among the most deadly natural disasters in the modern history of our state,” said Nancy Ward, director of the California Office of Emergency Services.

Nineteen people had died in California from storm-related impacts by Friday afternoon, excluding two men found dead in a Sea Ranch home who may have succumbed to noxious fumes associated with a generator running in the house.

A 5-year-old San Luis Obispo County boy is still missing after he was swept from his mother’s grasp after the two became stranded in their truck in floodwaters north of Paso Robles. He is not counted among the fatalities either.

Acting CHP Commissioner Sean Duryee urged residents to remember how much “important work” is being done alongside state roads and highways by police, firefighters, utility and road workers and tow truck drivers, and urged them to “slow down (and) give them a wide space cushion.”

With sink holes, rock slides, mudslides, down trees and power lines, “the roadway conditions are always changing,” he said.

Said Ward, the state emergency chief, “We can’t emphasize enough how we can eliminate and reduce the amount of fatalities just by human behavior, whether it’s don’t travel if you don’t need to, watch out for the first responders and don’t go around barriers. Don’t go into floodwaters whether you’re walking, standing, driving.

“It’s just really, really imperative that you stay away from standing water,” she said.

National Weather Service meteorologist Brayden Murdock piled on, as well.

“A lot of folks have heard it over and over again, but just be weather aware. Know where your evacuation zones are. Report localized flooding that you are seeing, and have multiple ways to get information if the power goes out.”

You can reach Staff Writer Alana Minkler at 707-526-8511 or alana.minkler@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @alana_minkler.

You can reach Staff Writer Mary Callahan (she/her) at 707-521-5249 or mary.callahan@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @MaryCallahanB.