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Wine Country Market Analysis June 2013

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By Gerrett Snedaker

Gerrett Snedaker

Gerrett Snedaker

Sonoma County: Sales fell sharply in June compared to May and inventory of unsold homes rose for fifth month in a row in the County of Sonoma.  Inventory was 822 units at the end of June compared to 751 units at the end of May.  Inventory is 21% below the inventory of June 2012 (1,043).  New sales in June (552) were 20% lower than last month (693) and 12% lower than that of June last year (633).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace – slightly better than the 1.2 months supply last month.  Properties are selling faster than they have in many years.  Homes that closed last month were on the market an average of 63 days compared to 98 days on market a year ago. This is the lowest period for Days on Market for Sonoma County since September of 2005 at the height of the last market.  With this velocity has come a surge in median price. The median price of homes closed in June in Sonoma County ($420,000) was 26% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($333,000).  This cooled on a year over year basis from last month when the median price increase was 33%.  The low median price over recent years was $292,000 in February 2011.  The market has rebounded 44% since that low.

Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up 7% of the inventory and 15% of the new sales – this continues to trend down month over month.  One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 14% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 36% of all new sales.  There is 0.7 months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the 90 distressed properties that sold in the month of June ($340,000) was 35% higher than June a year ago ($252,000).

Sonoma Valley: There were 117 available homes in inventory at the end of June in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood).  The inventory is 26% lower than the inventory a year ago (157) and 5% higher than the inventory last month (111). There were 75 new sales for the month.  For the last three months, new sales have been 75, 74 and 75.  This sales pace is 32% higher than the pace in June 2012 (57).  Days on market remained relatively low in June at 54 days – the lowest since March 2005.   There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  There are only 6 available distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) in the inventory.   15% of the new sales and 8% of the closings were distressed properties for the month.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (67) in Healdsburg at the end of June was down 29% from that of last year (94) and it was down slightly from last month (70).  New sales (28) were up 33% from the 21 new sales in June 2012 and were up slightly from the 25 sales last month.  Sales have been fairly stable in the 20’s to 30’s per month over the past fifteen months.  The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 2.4 months. Only 1% of the inventory (1 home) in Healdsburg consists of “distressed properties” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), and only one of the new sales in the month was a distressed properties.  Healdsburg is essentially out of distressed properties at this time.

Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (75) in Petaluma at the end of June was 24% lower than a year ago (98) and it was 25% ahead of the supply last month (60).  New sales in June (60) were 36% below the pace in June 2012 (94) and they were 28% below the pace of last month (84).  There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 71 closed homes in Petaluma in June ($491,000) was up 34% from the median closing price in June 2012 ($367,000).  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up just 10% of the available inventory, 12% of new sales and 13% of closings for the month.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (71) in Sebastopol at the end of June rose for the sixth straight month.  It was 11% lower than that of June 2012 (80) and it was 11% ahead of that of last month (64).  There were 44 new sales for the month of June.  This is a whopping 47% higher than the new sales in June 2012 (30) and 22% ahead of the 36 sales last month.  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  There are only four distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) available in Sebastopol.  There were four distressed sales and seven distressed closings.  This market is essentially out of distressed properties at the current time.  If they come on the market, they sell right away.

If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com