Water shortage spurs mandatory cutbacks

A smattering of rain that floated through Sonoma this week will do little if anything to allay the continued severe drought in the area, according to state and local weather experts.

Reservoir levels are far below average, and coming on the heels of the driest year on record in 2013, the prospects for immediate relief from drought conditions are slim. The situation has moved the State Water Resources Control Board to step in with a series of required water conservations measures – with still more drastic measures to come if the rains fail to arrive.

Sonoma Valley and the city of Sonoma, like much of the county, receive most of their water from the Russian River. Two main reservoirs feed the river, but as of this week Lake Mendocino was at only 34 percent of capacity, while Lake Sonoma was just at 66 percent. Complicating matters is the fact that Lake Mendocino – which gets much of its water from the Eel River watershed to the north through a diversion at Potter Valley – cut its flow into the Russian River watershed by 30 percent earlier this year.

Earlier this week, the Valley of the Moon Water District followed Santa Rosa and other area utilities in implementing Stage Two mandatory water conservation measures, which include home irrigation only during nighttime hours (8 p.m. to 6 a.m.), a prohibition on filling or refilling of swimming pools, a ban on non-recirculating ornamental fountains, no non-commercial washing of vehicles except with a bucket and hose with a shut-off nozzle, plus limitations on construction use of water for dust control and other non-essential purposes. Restaurants are also asked not to provide water for customers except by their request.

“Really, what the list is, is best-management practices,” said Valley of the Moon Water District executive director Daniel Muelrath. “They should be an everyday norm. This is about being efficient and eliminating the waste, as opposed to doing without.”

His district has a two-month billing cycle, with the lowest usage tier up to 18,000 gallons per household. That equals out to about 59 gallons a person per day, plus water for efficient landscape irrigation during summer. “This should not be painful for people to comply with, that’s not the intent,” said Muelrath. “Our customers are responding and doing what’s been asked of them,” he said, reducing the district’s water usage by 17 percent between March and July.

Likewise, the City of Sonoma reports water use declined just over 16 percent for a similar period compared to last year, according to public works director Dan Takasugi. Just last month, the city implemented monthly instead of bi-monthly water billing, to help residents track their water use and find any leaks more quickly. Like most utilities, the city bills water consumption for single family homes on a tier basis, with under 7,000 gallons a month priced at the base rate; 7,000 to 18,000 gallons at a higher Tier 2 rate, and above 19,000 gallons at Tier 3. Many homes use into the Tier 2 level, while only a few go into Tier 3, Takasugi said.

Water conservation measures are scheduled to come up for a vote at the City Council meeting on Aug. 18, to address the basic requirements of the state’s emergency conservation regulations passed by the Water Board last month. “The most notable staff recommendation will be a mandatory curtailment of outdoor turf irrigation to two days per week,” said Takasugi. The outdoor irrigation rules are still being evaluated, but may be alternated between east side and west side parts of the city to balance water use.

But if the drought continues, even those limitations may not be enough. The city code, based on state regulations, goes on to mandate Stage 3 “severe water shortage” compliance that prohibits all ornamental fountains, recirculating or not; all noncommercial washing of vehicles; and further limits to turf watering. If the water shortage continues, Stage 4 “Critical water shortage” measures could implement rationing and temporary service interruptions.

Violations of the provisions do come with penalties, including a $100 fine for the first violation, $200 for a second violation of the same code section within the same year, and $300 for the third or any subsequent violations, according to the municipal code. Add those numbers on top of your water bill – which may already include drought surcharges of up to 25 percent if you use into Tier 3 – and it’s clear that excess water use comes with consequences.

Meanwhile, the reduced chance of a wet El Niño year has led to renewed concern among water experts that the present Exceptional Drought status currently afflicting over half the state may continue indefinitely. “The chance of a strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages,” reports the Weather Service’s El Nino Watch. “At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter.” Although heavy rainfall in an El Nino year is never a given, the lowering of expectations is unnerving.

Long-range forecasting is far from an exact science. The Accuweather service projects that, after this weekend, there will be no rainfall until mid-September, at the very end of its looking-glass. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center agrees, seeing persistent or intensified drought into October.

For once, folk wisdom is in agreement with the experts. The current Farmer’s Almanac, founded in 1818, projects a warmer than normal winter, with rainfall above normal in California’s north and below normal in the south. But that warm weather means mountain snowpack will be low, making reservoir holdings again tenuous for next summer, and the possibility that drought condition and restrictions will continue indefinitely.