We have been tracking the Sonoma Valley Adult (55+) Community real estate market for over 20 years and have been providing reports such as this as a community service. We have found that a good table is equal to a good photo in getting a lot of information across quickly.
Reviewing 10 years of data, we see that number of units sold in Sonoma County peaked in 2004 with prices continuing to trend higher until the market peak of 2007. The following decline due to the debt and mortgage crisis of 2008 began reversing in 2012 with our having substantial gains in both market value and prices since the market bottom.
2013 was an amazing year in Sonoma’s adult communities. Home sales outpaced all prior years with the greatest number of homes being offered and sold since the market peak. The makeup of homes being offered also changed substantially with a greater amount of the sample being homes of better quality – having more improvements, upgrades, and larger floor plans. Fewer distress property sales also added to the improved values received. The median values for Creekside Village/Chantarelle homes increased by $88,900. The magnitude of this reversal is partially explained by the 2012 results where values had fallen due to a greater percentage of sales being distress related or homes needing more significant repairs or upgrades.
Median values for Temelec/Country Meadows homes increased by $54,500 in 2013 following significant gains reported in 2012. Here we would argue that the market had overly discounted Sonoma Valley’s original adult community during the decline, where market pessimism made for difficult times for Seller’s needing to relocate.
Those in our industry who profess the ability to forecast the future have been stating that values are expected to continue to rise over the next few years, albeit at a slower rate. The usual presidential election year bump is expected in 2016 with nobody willing to project their forecasts much further. The mortgage industry is also expected to remain strong with significant, if lesser government support to keep rates at these historic low levels.
For now, we appear to be sailing on calmer seas. Market forces are more balanced between buyers and sellers, with sellers still having an edge due to limited inventory of homes offered for sale. While there are few homes offered for sale currently, we expect the inventory to build in coming months.
The headings of the chart above show data year on the vertical axis
Units Sold and prices along the horizontal axis where:
SC Tot = Total Number of sold residential transactions within Sonoma County for the year stated.
SC Med = Median price reported for Sonoma County homes (Value at which ½ of sample above, and ½ of sample below).
SV Tot = Total number of sold residential transactions within Sonoma Valley for the year stated.
SV Med = Median price reported.
CV/CH Tot = Total number of Creekside Village and Chantarelle Community sold for the year stated.
CV/CH Med = Median price reported.
Tem Tot = Temelec and Country Meadows Homes sold for the year stated.
Tem Med = Median price reported.