Sonoma Valley mulls $155 million school bond measure for Nov. ballot

Consultant says measure would likely pass|

Despite the fact that half of all voters in Sonoma Valley don’t have kids in the public schools, a new opinion poll shows that enough are likely to vote “yes” to pass a major new bond measure sought by the district.

Greg Isom’s Walnut Creek-based Isom Advisors is a financial and campaign advisory firm that has successfully worked with more than 80 California school districts on bond measures since 2012, including conducting similar voter surveys for many of Sonoma Valley’s neighboring school districts. He was paid $7,500 by the school district to conduct a poll last month to determine whether Sonoma Valley voters are likely to pass a bond measure in support of improvements and new construction at Sonoma Valley schools.

His firm surveyed 400 Sonoma Valley voters who matched the demographic of Sonoma Valley’s overall registered voter base of 20,000.

The district and the school board are still mulling over the amount of the bond, but at the Dec. 8 school board meeting, indications pointed to a $155 million bond – the maximum amount allowed in California, or $60 per $100,000 of assessed parcel value. Isom’s company tried out different tax tolerances, and found more support for lower numbers, but a passing level of support for the maximum amount allowed.

The current median house value in the City of Sonoma is $725,000, according to data from Paragon Real Estate. If approved, a $155 million bond measure would add $420 a year in parcel tax to that median homeowner for 6 to 7 years. For a house assessed at $1 million, meanwhile, the measure would add $600 per year for 6 to 7 years.

Currently, the district has “master plans” for upgrades at each of the campuses – the high school, two middle schools, five elementary schools and two charter schools. But it lacks funding. The unfunded projects in the master plans amount to a total of $219 million – $113 million at the high school plus $106 million at the rest of the campuses.

Isom’s 10-minute phone survey asked potential voters two questions: First, whether they were generally in favor of a bond measure; second, whether they were in favor of a bond measure after he provided details of the bond measure.

Initial question: “At this time, the District is looking to make classroom and school facility improvements and is considering placing a school improvement bond measure before votes in your community on an upcoming ballot. If the election were held today, would you vote YES in favor of the measure or would you vote NO to oppose the measure?”

Second question included the following details of the proposed measure: “To improve the quality of local education with funding that cannot be taken by the State; modernize, construct and/or renovate classrooms, restrooms and school facilities; make health and safety improvements; improve student access to computers and modern technology; and repair or replace deteriorating plumbing systems; shall the Sonoma Valley Unified School District issue $155 million of bonds at legal interest rates, annual audits, have an independent citizens;’ oversight committee and NO money for teacher or administrative salaries?”

School bond measures in California require 55 percent of the vote to pass.

The survey found that upon the initial question (not knowing anything about the specifics) 59 percent of those surveyed said that they would vote yes and 27.8 percent would vote no, with about a 5 percent margin of error. After hearing details about the project and the need, the percentage of voters in favor climbed to 63.5 percent.

Schoolboard president Sal Chavez said he was pleased, noting that “83 percent of the voters surveyed agreed that the district needs to maintain and improve the quality of its existing facilities. In fact, there was a high level of support for all of the projects that were included in the voter survey.” 

The survey found that half of the voters (49 percent) will not and have not ever had children or grandchildren attending Sonoma Valley public schools. Isom confirmed that this figure is higher than in almost every other district he has worked, but did not draw any conclusions on how this fact might affect the ballot measure.

Sonoma Valley voters approved a $40 million bond (Measure M) by 67 percent in 2010. That money has either been spent or is targeted for projects.

“This opinion poll was just a first step,” said Isom. “We surveyed the community to see if it is open to this idea and found that they are.”

The board was informed Dec. 8 that support for a bond measure is currently above the 55 percent voter approval threshold. Said Isom, “We recommend the District continue to reach out to and educate the community, and plan on placing a bond measure on the November 2016 ballot.”

Sonoma Valley Unified School District Superintendent Louann Carlomagno emphasized the experience that Isom brings to the table, saying, “Greg has worked on almost every school bond issue in the North Bay in recent years.” She said that next steps include communications with stakeholders to determine whether to seek bond approval and for what amount. “The district will be guided by the voter survey, but of course has the flexibility to include different project categories or projects in the final ballot measure, should there be a decision to proceed after further feedback from the community is received,” she said. She added that the district will make its final decision in the spring.

Also announced at the Dec. 8 school board meeting was Sal Chavez taking the reins as president and the renewing of Carlomagno’s contract through 2019.

Contact Lorna at lorna.sheridan@sonomanews.com

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