Economy recovering ‘slowly but surely’

Sonoma County continues its steady climb to post-recession economic recovery, a University of California economist reported at Thursday’s State of the County breakfast.

But the progress has been, and will continue to be, gradual.

“Recovery is in its sixth year, and each year looks like the last one,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “But it’s getting better – slowly but surely.”

The annual economic overview of the county was presented to a packed room at the Double Tree Hotel in Rohnert Park Thursday morning, and featured an economic forecast by Nickelsburg, in addition to a keynote address by 1st District Supervisor Susan Gorin.

Nickelsburg said that the regions of the United States that have recovered most successfully from the Great Recession are those that are technology and energy driven. “It’s the formula for the future,” Nickelsburg said. “It’s a formula Sonoma has been able to embody.”

According to a report by the Sonoma County Economic Development Board, the county in 2013-14 saw several positive economic trends, including a 5.1 percent unemployment rate which nears pre-recession levels, an increase in median income levels (from $40,152 to $42,095), and a lowering of 3.5 percent of the number of residents without health insurance.

Other encouraging signs of growth fell under the tourism umbrella: hotel occupancy rates were up 6.2 percent and transient occupancy tax revenue rose beyond pre-recession levels – increasing by a whopping 13 percent.

Among the “concerning trends” in the report was the “slight increase” in average waste per ?person – up by 0.2 pounds – and a 7.6 percent increase in water use per day by county residents.

While it’s preferable that water and waste were declining – as they had been in recent years – county officials point out that those increases could be indicators of an improving economy, with more businesses using water and more consumers purchasing goods.

Perhaps the best news, said Nickelsburg, is that “nothing suggests an impending downturn in the economy for the next couple of years.”

In her keynote address, Gorin said Sonoma County “has one of the strongest economies in the state,” crediting the county’s reduction in pension liability, a rise in median home prices, and the $100 million in tax revenue from tourism the county saw in 2014.

“We have a great competitive advantage when attracting and creating businesses,” said Gorin.

With a series of photos of various community members projecting on a screen behind her, Gorin touched upon several key initiatives county officials would be focusing upon in 2015 – including staying among the “national leaders” (as President Obama recognized in December) in sustainability; preserving critical services like the Sonoma Developmental Center and, as Gorin put it, “raising, not leveling, the playing field on inequality.”

In a moment that drew a few chuckles from the audience, Gorin encouraged the county to address the issue of affordable housing – while a slide of a grinning brewmeister from Santa Rosa’s Moonlight Brewing Co. projected on the big screen.

In 2015, summarized Gorin, Sonoma County will continue to “bring balance and collaboration into our daily lives.”

“Our economy is strong and growing,” Gorin said. “And we did this together.”