It was law-breaking, both proven and alleged, that ended the Democrats’ supermajority in the state Senate. Republican efforts had nothing to do with it. Until state Sens. Roderick Wright of Los Angeles, Ron Calderon of Montebello and Leland Yee of San Francisco encountered serious legal problems, Democrats had more than two-thirds of the seats in both houses of the Legislature for almost the first time ever.
The party also holds all statewide offices, from governor and U.S. senator down through the treasurer’s slot, and the mayor’s office in all but one of the state’s four largest cities. That’s more of a stranglehold on California politics than any party has ever enjoyed.
And it appears that almost no matter what Democrats do, they will continue to enjoy such dominance for years to come.
This seems assured by both national demographic trends and state registration figures that look bad for the GOP.
Between the beginning of 2010 and mid-2014, as population grew by an estimated 2 million, Republican voter registration actually dropped by 121,000.The percentage drop seemed a tad more significant, falling from 30.75 percent of all voters to 28.73 percent before rebounding to just over 30 percent again. During the same period, Democratic registration increased by more than 150,000, even as the party’s percentage of registrants fell by about 1 percent, from 44.62 percent to 43.58 percent.
Where did the missing Republicans go? It appears most joined the growing ranks of independents, choosing not to affiliate with either party, and even more joined small splinter parties. Registration figures for people with no party preference grew by 286,000 during those four-plus years, or about 1 percent. Another 303,000 signed up with miscellaneous smaller parties.
This trend portends no good for Republicans, who did not even enter significant candidates in several legislative and Congressional primary election races.
But the GOP’s problems go even deeper. As California’s population becomes ever more urban, centering in the metropolitan areas around Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Orange County, Democrats keep gaining ground.
One study of voter registration in America’s 3,144 counties indicated what California analysts already knew: Democrats are from cities, Republicans from the ex-urbs – suburban or rural areas. This was already true in 1988, starting date for that study, but it’s even truer today.
Los Angeles led the top 25 counties for Democratic voter pickups, gaining 1.2 million Democratic voters in the last 25 years. Orange and San Diego counties are also among the top 10 counties for Democratic voter growth, one reason politics has become more competitive over the last 10 years in those Republican bastions.
Meanwhile, there were no California counties among the top 25 for Republican voter gains during the last quarter century. So, as California and the nation become more urban and less countrified and suburban, Democratic margins tend to go up.
Add this trend to the well-documented increases in Latino voters (which account for much of the Democratic increases in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties) and you get a bleak picture for Republicans.
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