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Wine Country Market Analysis February 2013

Sonoma County: Sonoma County finally had an increase in inventory on a month over month basis.  The inventory had essentially fallen every month since April 2011 (21 straight months) until this month.  Inventory was 632 units at the end of February compared to 592 units at the end of January.  It remains 40% below the inventory of February 2012 (1,047).  Now we will see if the market will maintain this upward trend.

New sales (494) were 13% lower than last year (565) but 9.5% ahead of last month (451).  There is a just a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace – a stressed market.  New listings for the month (413) were 31% lower than the pace in February 2012 (597).  The median price of homes closed in February in Sonoma County ($365,000) was 22% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($300,000).

Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up 15% of the inventory and 27% of the new sales.  One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 29% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 58% of all new sales.  There is 0.7 months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace.  The median price of 108 distressed properties that sold in the month of February ($320,000) was 28% higher than February a year ago ($250,000).

 

Sonoma Valley: There were 94 available homes in inventory at the end of February in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) an increase for the second month in a row.  The inventory is 32% lower than the inventory a year ago (138) and 16% ahead of the inventory last month (81). There were 44 new sales for the month.  This is a reasonable number looking over the past five months, and slightly below the sales in February 2012 (50).  There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent 12% of the inventory, 16% of the new sales for the month and 32% of the closings for the month.  This compares to 13%, 48% and 43% a year ago.  Distressed sales are less than half of the impact that they were having on our market a year ago.

 

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (54) in Healdsburg at the end of February was down 28% from that of last year (75) and it was slightly ahead of that of last month (52).  This continues to be a very low inventory for this market.  New sales (24) were up one from the 23 new sales in February 2012 and were up from the 21 sales last month.  The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is down to 2.3 months.   Only 4% of the inventory (2 homes) in Healdsburg consists of “distressed properties” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), but 12.5% of the new sales were distressed properties and 17% of the closings were distressed properties.  There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the sales pace of distressed properties.

 

Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (55) in Petaluma at the end of February was 40% lower than a year ago (91) and it was slightly below the supply last month (58).  New sales in January (70) were 9% below the pace in February 2012 (77) and they were 29% lower than the pace of last month (99).  For whatever reason, the 99 sales last month were an aberrational high.  There is less than a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 34 closed homes in Petaluma in February ($448,000) was up 29% from the median closing price in February 2012 ($346,000).  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 15% of the available inventory, 30% of new sales and 29% of closings for the month.  This compares to 26% of inventory, 60% of new sales and 52% of closings in February 2012.

 

Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (159) in Santa Rosa at the end of February has been stable at that level for the past three months.  It was 56% lower than the inventory a year ago (361).  It continues to be  the lowest level of inventory in Santa Rosa since the beginning of the millennium. There were 135 new listings and 194 new sales for the month – you can see where that trend will lead.  New sales in February (194) were 19% below the pace in February 2012 (238) but they were 21% ahead of the pace of last month (160).  There is only a 0.8 months supply of available homes based on the current sales pace.  The median price of homes closed in February in Santa Rosa was $342,000 compared to $276,000 a year ago – a 24% increase.  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 13% of the available inventory (continues decreasing trend), 24% of new sales and 35% of closings for the month. This compares to 39% of inventory, 56% of new sales and 53% of closings a year ago.  There is a one half months supply of distressed properties available.  The median price of the distressed property closings for the month was also 21% higher than in February 2012.

 

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (50) in Sebastopol at the end of February was 24% lower than that of February 2012 (66) and it was about the same as that of last month (48).  There were 32 new sales for the month of February.  This is 39% higher than the new sales in February 2012 (23) and 46% ahead of the 22 sales last month.  There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  There are only four distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) available in Sebastopol.  There were seven distressed sales and seven distressed closings.  This market is essentially out of distressed properties at the current time.  If they come on the market, they sell right away.

 

If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com