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Wine Country Real Estate Trends - October 2012

Sonoma County: The County has the lowest inventory of available homes (823) for any month since December 2004 (815), eight years ago when the market was red hot.  It is the second lowest level for any month since the beginning of this millennium.  The inventory is less than half of the amount it was in October 2011 (1678).  New sales (575) were equal to the amount last month and 11% higher than last year (516).  There is a just a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace – a stressed market.  New listings for the month (389) were 32% lower than the pace in October 2011 (576).  The median price of homes closed in October in Sonoma County ($356,000) was 19% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($298,000).

Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up 14% of the inventory and 38% of the new sales.  One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 30% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 55% of all new sales.  There is less than a half months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace.  The median price of 154 distressed properties that sold in the month of October ($280,000) was 18% higher than October a year ago.

Sonoma Valley: There were 123 available homes in inventory at the end of October in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood).  This is the lowest level of inventory for any month since March 2005.  It is 39% lower than the inventory a year ago (200) and 7% below the inventory last month (132). There were 54 new sales for the month.  This is about equal to the sales in October 2011 (52) and 25% ahead of the pace last month (43).  There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent 10% of the inventory (12 units), 30% of the new sales for the month and 25% of the closings for the month.  This compares to 17%, 54% and 44% a year ago.  Distressed sales are having about half of the impact that they had a year ago.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (78) in Healdsburg at the end of October was down 33% from that of last year (116) and it was down 10% from that of last month (87).  New sales (20) were down 20% from the 25 new sales in October 2011 and were down 39% from the 33 sales last month.  The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace normalized at 3.9 months.   Only 4% of the inventory in Healdsburg consists of “distressed properties” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), but 25% of the new sales were distressed properties and 12% of the closings were distressed properties.  There is a one half months supply of inventory based on the inventory and sales pace of distressed properties.

Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (77) in Petaluma at the end of October was a whopping 62% lower than a year ago (203) and it was 5% lower than the supply last month (81).  New sales in October (68) were 13% ahead of the pace in October 2011 (60) and they were 16% lower than the pace of last month (81).  There is only a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 19% of the available inventory, 34% of new sales and 25% of closings for the month.  This compares to 33% of inventory, 53% of new sales and 48% of closings in October 2011.

Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (222) in Santa Rosa at the end of October was 61% lower than a year ago (572).   It was down 9% from the Inventory last month (245).  This is the lowest level of inventory in Santa Rosa since the beginning of the millennium.  The level of new listings for the month (151) was also the lowest since before January 2000.  There were 151 new listings and 238 new sales for the month – you can see where that trend will lead.  New sales in October (238) were 9% higher than the pace in October 2011 (218) and they were slightly ahead of the pace of last month (227).  There is only a 0.9 months supply of available homes paced on the current sales pace.  The median price of homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was $325,000 compared to $265,000 a year ago – a 23% increase.  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 19% of the available inventory (continues decreasing trend), 39% of new sales and 31% of closings for the month. This compares to 40% of inventory, 56% of new sales and 54% of closings a year ago.  There is only one half months supply of distressed properties available.  The median price of the distressed properties sold ($280,000) has gone up 24% in the past twelve months.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (69) in Sebastopol at the end of October was 29% lower than that of October 2011 (97) and it was 11% lower than that of last month (78).  There were 38 new sales for the month of October compared to 20 in October 2011 and 39 last month.  Sales have remained stable over the past three months.  There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  There are only 2 distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) available in Sebastopol.  This market is essentially out of distressed properties at the current time.  Distressed properties did make up 39% of the new sales for the month and 31% of the closings.

If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com