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Wine Country Real Estate Trends - November 2012

Sonoma County: Sonoma County has the lowest inventory of available homes (703) for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000. Even in the height of the boom market in 2004-05, we had more inventory than we do now.  The inventory is less than half of the amount it was in November 2011 (1,491).  For the past decade, our inventory peaked at 3,552 units in September 2007.  We currently have only about 20% of that amount.  New sales (450) were 26% below that of last month (604) and 8% lower than last year (488).  This is the lowest pace of sales for any month going back to February 2011.  There is a just a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace – a stressed market.  New listings for the month (317) were 39% lower than the pace in November 2011 (519).  The median price of homes closed in November in Sonoma County ($350,000) was 17% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($298,000). Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up 15% of the inventory and 35% of the new sales.  One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 33% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 57% of all new sales.  There is 0.7 months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace.  The median price of 178 distressed properties that sold in the month of November ($275,000) was 8% higher than November a year ago ($255,000).

Sonoma Valley: There were 100 available homes in inventory at the end of November in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood).  This is the lowest level of inventory for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000.  It is 43% lower than the inventory a year ago (174) and 19% below the inventory last month (123). There were 36 new sales for the month.  This is about equal to the sales in November 2011 (38) but 32% behind the pace last month (56).  There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent just 6% of the inventory (6 units), 36% of the new sales for the month and 22% of the closings for the month.  This compares to 20%, 45% and 44% a year ago.  Distressed sales are having about half of the impact that they had a year ago.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (66) in Healdsburg at the end of November was down 32% from that of last year (97) and it was down 15% from that of last month (78).  This is the lowest inventory in Healdsburg since February 2005 when there were just 57 units available.  New sales (24) were up 118% from the 11 new sales in November 2011 and were slightly ahead of the 21 sales last month.  The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace dropped to 2.8 months.   Only 6% of the inventory in Healdsburg consists of “distressed properties” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), but 21% of the new sales were distressed properties and 29% of the closings were distressed properties.  There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the inventory and sales pace of distressed properties.

Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (64) in Petaluma at the end of November was a whopping 62% lower than a year ago (167) and it was 17% lower than the supply last month (77).  As with the County as a whole, this is the lowest level of inventory in Petaluma since the year 2000.  New sales in November (56) were 11% below the pace in November 2011 (63) and they were 25% lower than the pace of last month (75).  There is only a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 16% of the available inventory, 38% of new sales and 27% of closings for the month.  This compares to 38% of inventory, 56% of new sales and 44% of closings in November 2011.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (54) in Sebastopol at the end of November was 37% lower than that of November 2011 (86) and it was 22% lower than that of last month (69).  As with the County as a whole, this is the lowest inventory recorded for Sebastopol since 2000.  There were 21 new sales for the month of November compared to 15 in November 2011 and 42 in last month.  There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  There is only one distressed property (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) available in Sebastopol.  This market is essentially out of distressed properties at the current time.  If they come on the market, they sell right away.

If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com