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Wine Country Market Analysis

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,032) in Sonoma County at the end of March was 50% lower than last year (2,052) and about the same as the supply last month (1,047).  This is the lowest level of inventory of available homes in the County since March of 2005, seven years ago.  But, it seems the decline in inventory may be at its end.  New sales in March (707) were 49.5% ahead of the pace in March 2011 (473) and they were 18% ahead of the pace of last month (600).  This is the highest level of sales for any month since June 2005.  There is only a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – a continuing indication of what we would normally call a strong “seller’s market”.  The median price of homes closed in March in Sonoma County was $303,000 and was 4% higher than homes sold a year ago. Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 25% of the available inventory (continuing to decrease), 53% of new sales (a lower percentage than last month) and 53% of closings for the month.  There is only 0.7 months supply of distressed properties available based on the current sales pace.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (141) at the end of March in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) was down 40% from the month of March 2011 (236).  It was slightly higher than a month ago (138) perhaps indicating the end of the seasonal decline in inventory.  There were 64 new sales for the month.  That is 68% higher than that of a year ago (38) and 18.5% ahead of that of last month (54).  This is the highest level of new sales in Sonoma since May 2005.  There is currently a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes closed (42) in the Valley in March was $392,000, 17% higher than the median price in March 2011 ($336,000).  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) in the Sonoma Valley in March (23) represent 16% of the inventory, 44% of the new sales and 40% of the closings.  There is only a 0.8% months supply of distressed properties available based on the current sales pace.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (78) in Healdsburg at the end of March was down 30.4% from that of last year (112) and equal to that of last month (75).  Inventory has leveled off since the first of the year.  New sales (29) were up a whopping 164% from the 11 new sales in March 2011 and up 21% from the 24 sales last month.  This is the highest level of new sales for Healdsburg since June 2009.  There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory in Healdsburg based on the current sales pace and that is the lowest level since February 2005.  Only 9% of the inventory in Healdsburg consists of “distressed properties” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), but 17% of the new sales were distressed properties and 21% of the closings were distressed properties.  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the inventory and sales pace of distressed properties.  These are the lowest ratios of distressed properties in all of Wine Country.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (77) in Sebastopol at the end of March was 25% lower than that of March 2011 (102) and it was 17% higher than that of last three months (66).  This is the reverse of the trends in our other Wine Country communities.  There were 26 new sales for the month.  This is 30% ahead of the pace of a year ago (20) and equal to the pace of the last couple of months.  There is a three months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – more inventory than most of our markets.  Distressed properties represent 13% of the inventory, 31% of the new sales for the month and 48% of the closings.  There is just 0.8 months supply of distressed properties available based on the current sales pace.

If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com, 
Gerrett Snedaker, CRB Senior Vice President, North Bay Wine Country Group Realtors