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Wine Country Market Analysis - February 2011

February, 2011 – Wine Country Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Napa County (565) was about equal to the inventory (578) at this time last year, and also about equal to the inventory in January 2011 (587). New sales (135) were 13% ahead of the pace a year ago (119) and up a whopping 41% from last month (96). It will be interesting to see if the rain in March dampens the results compared to February. 31% of the current listings in Napa County are distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure). 64% of the new sales and 63% of the closed sales for the month were distressed. These figures are about 10% higher than the past couple of months. The city of Napa figures mirrored the county with regard to the impact of distressed properties on the market. American Canyon remains short on inventory as there are just 1.5 months supply based on new sales and the impact of distressed properties is the highest in the county: 62% of inventory, 92% of new sales and 72% of closings.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), inventory remained flat in February with 161 units compared to 159 last month and 159 in February of 2010. There were 10 new sales for the month which is consistent with the pace a year ago and over the past several months. Just 14% of the inventory consisted of distressed properties, but 50% (5) of the new sales for the month were distressed properties.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,456) in Sonoma County at the end of February was 22% higher than a year ago (1,191) and equal to the supply last month (1474). New sales (463) in February were 13% ahead of the pace in February 2010 (410) and they were 17% ahead of the pace of last month (397). The median price of homes closed in February in Sonoma County was $300,000, which was consistent with the median price last month but 7% below the median price of homes sold a year ago. There is only a 3.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties make up 38% of the available inventory, 58% of new sales and 58% of closings for the month.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (152) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of February was 12% lower than that for February 2010 (173). It was equal to that of last month (152). There were 40 new sales for the month, which is a whopping 74% higher than that of a year ago (23) and 43% higher than that of last month (28). Buyers were out in force in February. The median price of the homes (31) closed in the Valley in February was $390,000 compared to $408,000 last month and $490,000 a year ago. Distressed sales are certainly impacting the overall median prices in the Sonoma Valley market as distressed properties represent 26% of the inventory, 43% of the new sales and 45% of the closings.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (62) in Healdsburg at the end of February was 20% lower than the inventory (77) in February 2010 and it was slightly lower than that of a month ago (67). New sales (19) were 280% higher than the 5 new sales in February 2010 and 46% higher than the 13 new sales last month. Again, it will be interesting to see if the rain in March will slow down this healthy sales pace. There is only a 3.3 months supply of inventory based on the current new sales pace – a very low level for Healdsburg. Only 11% of the inventory consists of “distressed properties”. 26% of the new sales were distressed properties and 40% of the closings were distressed properties.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (59) at the end of February 2011 was 34% higher than that of a year ago (44) and remained equal to that of month ago. Sales for the month of October were equal to the pace a year ago (16) but were 60% ahead of the 10 new sales reported in January 2010. There is a 3.7 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales. The Cloverdale market is more dramatically impacted by distressed properties than the county in general but lesser so than some communities like Windsor (see below). 37% of the inventory are distressed properties and 44% of the new sales and 78% of the closings for the month are distressed properties.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (62) in the Sebastopol at the end of February was 41% higher than that for February 2010 (44). It was 22% higher than that of last month (51). There were 12 new sales for the month, which is equal that of a year ago and slightly lower than that of last month (15). The median price of the homes closed (15) in Sebastopol in February was $389,000 compared to $467,000 last month and $534,000 a year ago. Distressed sales are certainly impacting the overall median prices in the Sonoma Valley market as distressed properties represent 24% of the inventory, 50% of the new sales and 47% of the closings.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (64) at the end of February was 21% higher than the inventory (53) in February 2010 and was down from the 73 units available last month. There were 37 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in February, which compares to 26 sales in February of 2010 and 30 in last month. There is just a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the new sales pace, so Windsor is a hot market right now; 59% of the available inventory are distressed properties while 62% of the new sales and 68% of the closings for the month are distressed properties. It appears that home buyers are recognizing value in the distressed sales in Windsor.

Solano County: Available inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Solano County remained high at 1,424 units in February 2011. This is 60% higher than the inventory in February 2010 (891). New sales for the month (558) were equal on a year over year basis (556) and were up 20% from the pace last month (460). There is 2.6 months supply of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of closed homes dropped to $180,000 for the past two months. Distressed properties make up 68% of the inventory, 80% of the new sales and 75% of the closed sales for the month. This is consistent for the past year or more.

If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com,
Gerrett Snedaker, CRB Senior Vice President, North Bay Wine Country Group Realtors