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September 2011 – Wine Country Market Analysis

Sonoma County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,813) in Sonoma County at the end of September was 28.5% lower than last year (2,536) and roughly equal to the supply last month (1,830).  New sales in August (633) were 63.6% ahead of the pace in September 2010 (387) and they were 8.6% ahead of the pace of last month (583). This is the highest level of new sales for Sonoma County for any month since August 2005.  There is only a 2.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – a continuing indication of a trend towards a “seller’s” market.  The median price of homes closed in September in Sonoma County was $322,000 and was 6% below the median price of homes sold a year ago ($344,000) but it was the highest median price since November 2010.   Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 29% of the available inventory, 56% of new sales and 48% of closings for the month.  At this time last year, 41% of the inventory consisted of distressed properties.  There is only a 1.5 months supply of distressed properties available.   The median price on the distressed sales is equal to $255,000 thereby heavily affecting the overall median price in the County.   Since distressed property inventory has stabilized over the past several months, there seems to be a steady supply coming on the market that is being rapidly absorbed.

Sonoma Valley Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (225) at the end of September in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) was down 22% from the month of September 2010 (290).  It was 7.4% lower than that of a month ago (243).  There were 59 new sales for the month that is a whopping 136% higher than that of a year ago (25) and equal to that of last month (60).  There is currently a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes closed (49) in the Valley in August was $410,000 compared to $515,000 last month and $500,000 a year ago.  This number is jumping around quite a bit based on whether there are substantial high-end closings in a particular month.  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) in the Sonoma Valley in September represent 20% of the inventory, 52.5% of the new sales and 45% of the closings.  This compares to 28% of the inventory, 44% of new sales and 29% of closings in September 2010.  There is only a 1.5 months supply of distressed properties available based on the current sales pace.   

Healdsburg Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (123) in Healdsburg at the end of September was down 17% from that of last year (149) and was equal to that of last month.  New sales (17) were 42% higher than the 12 new sales in September 2010 and were in line with the sales over the past year.  Only 6.5% of the inventory consists of “distressed properties” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure).   35% of the new sales were distressed properties and 36% of the closings were distressed properties.  There is a 7.2 months supply of inventory based on the overall inventory and sales pace, and only a one month supply of inventory based on the inventory and sales pace of distressed properties.
 

Santa Rosa:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (573) in Santa Rosa (MLS Marketing Areas) at the end of September was 35% lower than a year ago (888) and equal to the supply last month (570).  New sales in September (261) were 63% ahead of the pace in September 2010 (160) and they were 16% ahead of the pace of last month (225).   This is the highest level of new sales for Santa Rosa for any month since June 2005.  There is only 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – an indication a “seller’s” market.  The median price of homes closed in September in Santa Rosa was $261,000 and was 16% below the median price of homes sold a year ago ($312,000).  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 39% of the available inventory, 59% of new sales and 55% of closings for the month.  At this time last year, 51% of the inventory consisted of distressed properties.  There is only a 1.4 months supply of distressed properties available.

If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com, 
Gerrett Snedaker, CRB Senior Vice President, North Bay Wine Country Group Realtors