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November 2011 - Wine Country Market Analysis

November 2011 - Wine Country Market Analysis
By Garrett Snedaker
 

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,491) in Sonoma County at the end of November was 31.7% lower than last year (2,184) and 11% lower than the supply last month (1,678).  This is the lowest level of inventory of available homes in the County since June of 2005, over six years ago.  New sales in November (594) were 62% ahead of the pace in November 2010 (366) and they were 8.6% ahead of the pace of last month (547). This is the highest level of new sales for Sonoma County for any month since August 2005.  There is only a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – a continuing indication of a trend towards a “seller’s” market.  The median price of homes closed in November in Sonoma County was $299,000 and was 8% below the median price of homes sold a year ago, $325,000 but it was consistent with the median price over the past ten months.   Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 33% of the available inventory, 60% of new sales and 51% of closings for the month.  There is only a 1.4 months supply of distressed properties available based on the current sales pace.  This time a year ago, distressed properties made up 31% of the inventory, 61% of new sales, and 46% of closing – remarkably similar to the current figures.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (47) at the end of November 2011 was 32% below that of a year ago (69) and was 23% below the inventory last month (61).  This is the lowest level of inventory in Cloverdale since April 2005.  Sales for the month of November (23) were 77% ahead of the pace of a year ago (13) and were 44% ahead of the new sales reported last month (16).  There have not been 23 new sales in Cloverdale for any month since April 2005 – over six years ago. There is a two months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales indicating a sellers market.  30% of the inventory is distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), 43% of the new sales and 88% of the closings for the month are distressed properties – a strong influence on the overall market.  But last year at this time, 62% of the inventory consisted of distressed properties.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (97) in Healdsburg at the end of November was down 23% from that of last year (126) and was down 16% from last month (116).  New sales (13) were down 7% from the 14 new sales in November 2010 that is counter the trend in the County as a whole where new sales exceeded those of a year ago.  Only 11% of the inventory in Healdsburg consists of “distressed properties” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), but 47% of the new sales were distressed properties and 15% of the closings were distressed properties.  There is a 7.5 months supply of inventory based on the overall inventory and sales pace, and only a one month supply of inventory based on the inventory and sales pace of distressed properties.  This shows the discretionary nature of the Healdsburg market that is similar, in this respect, to the Up Valley market in Napa County.
 

Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (167) in Petaluma at the end of November was 34% lower than a year ago (252) and was 18% lower than the supply last month (203).  This is the lowest inventory in Petaluma since January of 2006.  New sales in November (71) were 77.5% ahead of the pace in November 2010 (40) and they were 11% ahead of the pace of last month (64). There is only a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – an indication of a “seller’s” market.  The median price of homes closed in November in Petaluma was $320,000 which is an apparition compared to the median price of sold homes in Petaluma over the last nine months, so we expect to see it higher next month. Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 38% of the available inventory, 58% of new sales and 43% of closings for the month.

Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (535) in Santa Rosa at the end of November was 36% lower than a year ago (832) and 6.5% lower than the supply last month (572).  This is the lowest level of inventory in Santa Rosa since June 2005, over six years ago.  New sales in November (259) were 64% ahead of the pace in November 2010 (158) and they were 10% ahead of the pace of last month (235).   This is the highest level of new sales for Santa Rosa for any month since August 2005.  There is only 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – an indication a “seller’s market”.  The median price of homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was $277,000 and was 2.7% above the median price of homes sold a year ago ($270,000).  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 44% of the available inventory, 65% of new sales and 51% of closings for the month. There is only a 1.4 months supply of distressed properties available.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (86) in Sebastopol at the end of November was 20% below that of November 2010 (107) and it was 11% below that of last month (97).  There were 18 new sales for the month.  This is 28% below the pace of that of a year ago (25) and 18% below that of last month (22).  These trends are opposing the trend in the County overall.  Distressed properties represent just 10% of the inventory, 44% of the new sales for the month and 32% of the closings.  There is just a 1.1 months supply of distressed properties available based on the current sales pace.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (174) at the end of November in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) was down 29% from the month of November 2010 (244).  It was 11% lower than that of a month ago (200).  This is the lowest level of inventory since January 2006. There were 47 new sales for the month that is 62% higher than that of a year ago (29) and slightly below that of last month (53).  There is currently a 3.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes closed (36) in the Valley in November was $391,000. This is 14% higher than $342,000 a year ago.  This number is jumping around quite a bit based on whether there are substantial high-end closings in a particular month.  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) in the Sonoma Valley in November represent 20% of the inventory, 45% of the new sales and 44% of the closings.  There is only a 1.7 months supply of distressed properties available based on the current sales pace.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (77) at the end of November was 38% lower than the inventory (125) in November 2010 and was 13.5% lower than the 89 units available last month.  This is the lowest inventory in Windsor since May 2005.  There were 56 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in November, which is 93% higher than the 29 sales in November of 2010 and 14% higher than the 49 sales last month.  The 56 sales last month were the highest for any single month since June of 2004.  There is just a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace, so Windsor remains the hottest market in Wine Country.  56% of the available inventory is distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) while 64% of the new sales and 56% of the closings for the month are distressed properties.

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Napa County (580) was 34% below the inventory (884) at this time last year and was 6% lower than the inventory in October (617).  This is the lowest inventory in Napa County since August 2005.  New sales (175) were 64.5% ahead of the pace of a year ago (107) and 32% ahead of that of last month (133).  This is the highest pace of new sales for any month in Napa County since August 2005.  The months of inventory available at the current sales pace is 3.3 months – a sign of a balanced market.  The median price of homes sold ($322,000) was 2% higher than the median price of a year ago ($316,000).  20% of the current listings in Napa County are distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure).  64% of the new sales and 53% of the closed sales for the month are distressed properties.  At this time a year ago, 27% of the inventory consisted of distressed properties, 67% of the new sales and 50% of the closings were distressed properties – so the pattern is consistent.  There is only a one-month supply of distressed properties on the market based on the current sales pace.  So it appears that buyers are responding to the values available in most of these distressed properties where the median price of the sales for last month was $245,000.
The City of Napa figures generally mirror the county figures.  The inventory (328) is off 40% from a year ago (544), new sales (117) are 75% ahead of a year ago and there is 2.8 months of available inventory at the current sales pace.  The median price for homes closed in Napa in the month of November was $315,000 – up from $308,000 a year ago.  The City has similar ratios with regard to the impact of distressed properties on the market – there is only a .9 months supply of distressed properties.  American Canyon remains short on inventory as there are just a 1.2 month supply based on new sales and the impact of distressed properties is the highest in the region:  60% of inventory, 76% of new sales and 86% of closings.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), inventory at the end of November was 177 units, down 16.5% from 212 a year ago and down from 183 last month.   There were 15 new sales in the month of November compared to 17 in November of last year and 11 in last month.  Just 8% of the inventory consists of distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), 47% (7) of the new sales for the month were distressed properties and 36% of the closed sales were distressed properties.
 

If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com, 
Gerrett Snedaker, CRB Senior Vice President, North Bay Wine Country Group Realtors