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May, 2011 – Wine Country Market Analysis

May, 2011 – Wine Country Market Analysis
By Gerrett Snedaker
 
Napa County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Napa County (626) was 12.4% below the inventory (715) at this time last year and was 3.5% ahead of the inventory in April. New sales (183) were 38% ahead of the pace of a year ago (133) and 24.5% ahead of that of last month (147). The median price of homes sold ($347,000) was on a par with the median price of a year ago ($353,000).  23% of the current listings in Napa County are distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure).  61% of the new sales and 44% of the closed sales for the month were distressed.  There is only a 1.3 month supply of “distressed” properties on the market based on the current sales pace, so it appears that buyers are responding to the values available in most of these distressed properties.  The city of Napa figures generally mirror the county with regard to the impact of distressed properties on the market.  American Canyon remains short on inventory as there are just 1.8 months supply based on new sales and the impact of distressed properties is the highest in the county:  67% of inventory, 90% of new sales and 68% of closings.
 
St. Helena/Up Valley Trends:  The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), inventory grew in May with 186 units compared to 169 last month. The inventory was 10% lower than it was in May of 2010 (207).  There were 23 new sales for the month which is the highest number of sales in the last 15 months.  Sales were 53% ahead of the pace last May.  Just 8% of the inventory consists of distressed properties, but 22% (5) of the new sales for the month were distressed properties.
 
Sonoma County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,769) in Sonoma County at the end of May was 11% higher than a year ago (1,596) and 7.2% ahead of the supply last month (1,650).  New sales in May (620) were 38% ahead of the pace in May 2010 (450) and they were 17% ahead of the pace of last month (530).  May 2011 was the highest month for sales in the past fifteen months, so this year’s performance is encouraging.  The median price of homes closed in May in Sonoma County was $316,000 and was 9% below the median price of homes sold a year ago ($347,000) but was 7% ahead of the median price of the homes closed last month ($295,000). There is only a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties make up 29% of the available inventory, 59% of new sales and 47% of closings for the month.  This means that there is only a 1.4 months supply of distressed properties available.   
 
Sonoma Valley Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (242) increased 11% in the month of May in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) from the month of April (218).  It was up 13.6% over the inventory of last year (213).  It continues the maturation of the spring market.  There were 56 new sales for the month, which is 40% higher than that of a year ago (40) and 12% higher than that of last month (50).   The Valley market is stronger than the county as a whole. The median price of the homes closed (36) in the Valley in May was $535,000 compared to $418,000 last month and $400,000 a year ago.  This is a 34% increase in median price year over year.  The impact of distressed properties in the Sonoma Valley market diminished slightly in May as distressed properties represented 20% of the inventory, 48% of the new sales and 28% of the closings.  While there is an overall 4.3 months supply of housing inventory in the Valley, there is only a 1.8 months supply of distressed properties. 
 
Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (113) in Healdsburg at the end of May rose slightly (6.6%) from last month and was 2% higher than the inventory (111) in May 2010.  New sales (19) were 58% higher than the 12 new sales in May 2010 and were 58% higher than the 12 new sales last month.  Only 6% of the inventory consists of “distressed properties”. 42% of the new sales were distressed properties and 25% of the closings were distressed properties.
 
Cloverdale Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (58) at the end of May 2011 was 9% higher than that of a year ago (53) and was 11.5% higher than that of month ago (52).  Sales for the month of May (9) were 65% behind the pace a year ago (26) and were 44% lower than the pace of the 16 new sales reported last month.  For whatever reason, activity in Cloverdale slowed down a great deal in May.  There is a 6.4 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales compared to 3.1 months in April. 45% of the inventory is distressed properties and 44% of the new sales and 25% of the closings for the month are distressed properties.
 
Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (77) in Sebastopol at the end of May was slightly below that of May, 2010 (78) and it was 8.5% ahead of that of last month (71). There were 30 new sales for the month, which is 36% ahead of that of a year ago (22) and 43% higher than that of last month (21). The Sebastopol market seems to be strengthening.  Distressed properties represent 16% of the inventory, 57% of the new sales for the month and 20% of the closings. There is less than one month’s supply of distressed properties available based on the current sales pace.
 
Windsor Trends:  The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (73) at the end of May was 4% lower than the inventory (76) in May 2010 and was 12% higher than the 65 units available last month.  There were 54 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in May, which is 38.5% higher than the 39 sales in May of 2010 and 50% higher than the 36 sales last month.  There is just a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the new sales pace, so Windsor is a hot market right now.  49% of the available inventory are distressed properties while 65% of the new sales and 58% of the closings for the month are distressed properties.
 
If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com,
Gerrett Snedaker, CRB Senior Vice President, North Bay Wine Country Group Realtors