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June, 2011 - Wine Country Market Analysis

June, 2011 – Wine Country Market Analysis
By Gerrett Snedaker

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Napa County (664) was 33% below the inventory (984) at this time last year and was 9% below the inventory in May. This is the lowest inventory of homes for sale in Napa County since February of 2006 – over five years ago. New sales (177) were 44% ahead of the pace of a year ago (123) and equal to that of that of last month (177). This is the highest level of sales for any month in Napa County going back to January 2001. The months of inventory available at the current sales pace is only 3.8 months – a sign of a balanced to a “seller’s” market. The median price of homes sold ($336,000) was 12% lower than the median price of a year ago ($380,000), but it is consistent with the median price over the last nine months. 20% of the current listings in Napa County are distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure). 66% of the new sales and 51% of the closed sales for the month are distressed properties. There is only a 1.1 months supply of “distressed” properties on the market based on the current sales pace, so it appears that buyers are responding to the values available in most of these distressed properties where the median price of the sales for last month was $256,000. It is encouraging to know that 74% of all short sales in the County are actually selling – much improved from some years ago.

The city of Napa figures generally mirror the county figures. The inventory (379) is the lowest since February 2006, new sales (115) are the highest for any month since May of 2005, and there is only 3.3 months of available inventory at the current sales pace. The median price for homes closed in Napa in the month of June was $325,000 – the same as June of 2010. The City of Napa has similar ratios with regard to the impact of distressed properties on the market – there is only a 1.1 months supply of distressed properties. American Canyon remains short on inventory as there are just 1.1 months supply based on new sales and the impact of distressed properties is the highest in the county: 60% of inventory, 65% of new sales and 85% of closings.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), inventory at the end of June was 208 units, down 17% from 251 a year ago and down from 222 last month. There were just 10 new sales in the month of June compared to 17 in June of last year, 25 last month and 19 in April – so the sales pace of the late spring has fallen off. Just 7% of the inventory consists of distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), but 40% (4) of the new sales for the month were distressed properties.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,893) in Sonoma County at the end of June was 19% lower than a year ago (2,337) and 6% below the supply last month (2,013). This is the lowest inventory for the County since January 2010. New sales in June (641) were 48% ahead of the pace in June 2010 (432) and they were 7% ahead of the pace of last month (597). This is the highest level of new sales for Sonoma County for any month since August of 2005. There is only a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – an indication of a “seller’s” market. The median price of homes closed in June in Sonoma County was $300,000 and was 11% below the median price of homes sold a year ago ($336,000) but was general consistent with the median price of sold homes in the County over the last six months. Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 28% of the available inventory, 55% of new sales and 51% of closings for the month. This means that there is only a 1.5 months supply of distressed properties available. The median price on the distressed sales is equal to $255,000 thereby heavily affecting the overall median price in the county. The median price of the non-distressed closings for the month was $353,000. It is encouraging to know that 88% of all short sales in the County are actually selling – much improved from some years ago.

Sonoma Valley Trends: Countering the County trend, the inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (266) increased slightly in the month of June in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) from the month of May (262). It was down 3% from the inventory of last year (273). There were 65 new sales for the months which is 59% higher than that of a year ago (41) and 18% higher than that of last month (55). This is the highest level of sales for any month in the Sonoma Valley since May of 2005. There is currently a 4.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes closed (44) in the Valley in June was $394,000 compared to $535,000 last month and $484,000 a year ago. It was generally consistent with the median price in the Valley over the past six months. The impact of distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) in the Sonoma Valley market diminished slightly in June as distressed properties represent 18% of the inventory, 37% of the new sales and 32% of the closings. There is only a 2 month supply of distressed properties available based on the current sales pace. The median “non-distressed” price of the homes closed in June in the Valley was $437,000.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (127) in Healdsburg at the end of June was down 18% from that of last year (155) and was 10% lower than last month (141). New sales (21) were 24% higher than the 17 new sales in June 2010 and were slightly higher than the 19 new sales last month. It is the highest sales pace for any month in Healdsburg since July of last year. Only 8% of the inventory consists of “distressed properties” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure). 23% of the new sales were distressed properties and 39% of the closings were distressed properties. There is a six months supply of inventory based on the overall inventory and sales pace, and only a two month supply of inventory based on the inventory and sales pace of distressed properties.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (67) at the end of June 2011 was 18% below that of a year ago (82) and was equal to the inventory over the past six months. Sales for the month of June (20) were 25% ahead of the pace of a year ago (16) and were 82% higher than the pace of the 11 new sales reported last month. It is the highest pace of sales for any month in Cloverdale since May of last year. There is a 3.4 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales indicating a balanced to “seller’s” market. 39% of the inventory is distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), 75% of the new sales and 67% of the closings for the month are distressed properties – a strong influence on the overall market. There is just a 1.7 months supply of distressed property inventory based on the current sales pace.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (121) in Sebastopol at the end of June was slightly below that of June 2010 (132) and it was slightly ahead of that of last month (113). There were 25 new sales for the month, which is 25% ahead of that of a year ago (20) and 17% below that of last month (30). The Sebastopol market seems to be stable over the past several months with 25 to 30 new sales per month. Distressed properties represent 13% of the inventory, 36% of the new sales for the month and 48% of the closings. There is a 1.8 months supply of distressed properties available based on the current sales pace.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (92) at the end of June was 27% lower than the inventory (126) in June 2010 and was slightly higher than the 89 units available last month. There were 40 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in June, which is 38% higher than the 29 sales in June of 2010 and 23% lower than the 52 sales last month. The 52 sales last month seem to be an anomaly. There is just a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace, so Windsor remains a hot market. 49% of the available inventory is distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), while 67% of the new sales and 50% of the closings for the month are distressed properties. The median price of non-distressed closings for the month was $425,000 compared to $275,000 for distressed properties.

If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com, Gerrett Snedaker, CRB Senior Vice President, North Bay Wine Country Group Realtors