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April 2011 – Wine Country Market Analysis

April 2011 – Wine Country Market Analysis
By Gerrett Snedaker

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in Napa County (605) was 9.8% below the inventory (671) at this time last year and was 7% ahead of the inventory in March. New sales (113) slid in April. They were 26% below the pace of a year ago (140) and 19% below that of last month (152). 26% of the current listings in Napa County are distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure). 52% of the new sales and 52% of the closed sales for the month were distressed. The City of Napa figures generally mirror the county with regard to the impact of distressed properties on the market. American Canyon remains short on inventory as there are just 2.2 months supply based on new sales and the impact of distressed properties is the highest in the county: 62% of inventory, 64% of new sales and 100% of closings.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), inventory grew slightly in April with 169 units compared to 155 last month. The inventory was 11% lower than it was in April of 2010 (189). There were 16 new sales for the month which is consistent with the pace a year ago and over the past several months. Just 7% of the inventory consisted of distressed properties, but 31% (5) of the new sales for the month were distressed properties.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,650) in Sonoma County at the end of April was 8.7% higher than a year ago (1,518) and 11.7% ahead of the supply last month (1,477). New sales in April (528) were 14% behind the pace in April, 2010 (617) and they were 16% ahead of the pace of last month (454). For whatever reason, April, 2010, was the highest month for sales in the past fifteen months, so this year’s performance, on balance, seems to be in line with seasonal trends. The median price of homes closed in April in Sonoma County was $300,000 and was 8% below the median price of homes sold a year ago ($326,000) but was ahead of the median price of the homes closed last month ($290,000). There is only a 3 month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties make up 32% of the available inventory, 53% of new sales and 54% of closings for the month. This means that there is only a 1.8 months supply of distressed properties available.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (218) jumped up 17% in the month of April in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) from the month of March. It was up 13.5% over the inventory of last year (192). It signals the maturation of the spring market. There were 53 new sales for the month which is 6% higher than that of a year ago (50) and 61% higher than that of last month (33). The Valley market was stronger than the County as a whole. The median price of the homes closed (32) in the Valley in April was $415,000 compared to $333,000 last month and $387,000 a year ago. The impact of distressed properties in the Sonoma Valley market diminished slightly in April as distressed properties represented 23% of the inventory, 38% of the new sales and 28% of the closings which are all lower percentages than in recent months. Last month, 53% of the closings were distressed properties. While there is an overall 4.1 months supply of housing inventory in the Valley, there is only a 2.6 months supply of distressed properties. This past month, we did have the experience of a conventional sale receiving multiple offers in excess of asking price and with a ten day close – so realistically-priced non-distressed properties can do well. The home was valued in the sub-$300,000 range where the market is the hottest.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (106) in Healdsburg at the end of April jumped up 41% from last month and was 7% higher than the inventory (99) in April, 2010. New sales (10) were 41% lower than the 17 new sales in April, 2010 and were equal to the 10 new sales last month. Only 11% of the inventory consists of “distressed properties”. 30% of the new sales were distressed properties and 37% of the closings were distressed properties.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (52) at the end of April, 2011 was 13% lower than that of a year ago (60) and were slightly below that of month ago (58). Sales for the month of April (17) were 33% behind the pace a year ago (25) and were 31% higher than the pace of the 13 new sales reported last month. There is a 3.1 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales. The Cloverdale market is more dramatically impacted by distressed properties than the county in general but lesser so than some communities like Windsor (see below). 38% of the inventory was distressed properties and 65% of the new sales and 60% of the closings for the month were distressed properties.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (71) in Sebastopol at the end of April was 11% ahead of that in April, 2010 (64) and it was 15% ahead of that of last month (62). There were 23 new sales for the month which is 21% ahead of that of a year ago (19) and 44% higher than that of last month (16). Distressed properties represent 24% of the inventory, 26% of the new sales and 36% of the closings.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (65) at the end of April was 24% lower than the inventory (86) in April, 2010 and was equal to the 66 units available last month. There were 36 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in April which compares to 39 sales in April of 2010 and 34 last month. There is just a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the new sales pace, so Windsor is a hot market right now. 49% of the available inventory is distressed properties while 61% of the new sales and 71% of the closings for the month are distressed properties.

If you would like a monthly update of this information, or information on other market areas, please drop me an e-mail at gsned@winecountrygroup.com,
Gerrett Snedaker, CRB Senior Vice President, North Bay Wine Country Group Realtors